
A dairy market analysis describes a first-quarter 2017 rally that was driven by production concerns in Europe and Oceania and a global push to secure fat. US spot butter prices rose 27% in five weeks after April and reached parity with world prices.
Prices then softened as domestic inventories built.
Global butterfat tightness transmitted quickly to US butter and milk prices, showing that export-market fat shortages can override normal seasonal softness. This points to continued sensitivity to world fat supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.