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Merchant Research analyzes the Belaruskali and Uralkali relationship as a driver of potash market volatility. It notes that the 2013 attempt by the two producers to form an alliance failed, and that Belarus cut its potash export duty from €55 to €20 per tonne in June 2017.
Belarus is pursuing volume over price, including a large contract with Chinese buyers at about USD227 per tonne.
Belarus's volume-first export push and discounted contract pricing into China add supply pressure and keep potash prices weak. Renewed producer rivalry leaves prices exposed to large swings.
mcgroup.co.ukAug 28, 2017Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
