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Wheat closed lower after a US trade deal with Southeast Asian countries including China did not include wheat purchases, and no USDA reports were released during the shutdown. Russian winter wheat is dry while spring wheat yields are reportedly strong, and rice fell on weak Asian prices.
The absence of wheat purchases in the trade deal removed a potential demand catalyst, leaving wheat prices pressured by ample supply and weaker world prices.
blog.pricegroup.comJack ScovilleOct 31, 2025After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On Oct 31 wheat closed lower because the US trade deal with Southeast Asian countries including China excluded wheat purchases, and no USDA reports were out; this disappointment fits the sell-off heading into Nov 3.
