Cool Midwest temperatures have eased crop stress and changed trader sentiment, though rainfall for the two weeks ended August 7 was well below average across much of Iowa, northern Missouri and Minnesota. Drew Lerner warns that heat and dryness later in August could quickly revive concerns, especially for soybeans.
Cooler weather reduces yield-loss expectations and pressures prices, but lingering dryness in the western Corn Belt leaves soybeans vulnerable to a renewed rally.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.