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Brown Brothers Harriman says Colombia's fundamentals are improving while political uncertainty rises ahead of the March 2018 parliamentary and May 2018 presidential elections. BBH stays cautious because it expects further central bank easing to erode the peso's appeal.
Polls show former Bogota mayor Gustavo Petro leading the presidential field.
Expected rate cuts and election risk could weaken the peso, which raises USDCOP. For feed markets the effect is limited to Colombian import costs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.