
Archer Financial analyst Dennis Smith said new hog slaughter plants in Iowa and Michigan will prevent backlogs during peak fall production. Daily slaughter set records at 460,000 head, while pork inventories are falling as exports and domestic consumption absorb supply.
Smith flagged Mexico's pullback during NAFTA renegotiation as a risk.
Expanded packing capacity and firm domestic and export demand support hog prices despite record output. Uncertainty over NAFTA and Mexican pork purchases is a downside risk for pork prices and feed demand.
After 85 past bullish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +4.5%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.