RCL Foods and Quantum Foods reported avian influenza on several South African farms, joining Sovereign Foods and Astral Foods. RCL culled birds on at least two farms, about 5% of its breeding stock, and at least 3 million birds have been culled or died since June.
Meat price inflation rose to 15% in August.
Bird culling cuts poultry supply and raises meat prices, while disrupted exports of raw meat, eggs and live birds shift demand. Feed demand from South African poultry producers falls, which is bearish for local maize and soy meal.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.