
U.S. ethanol exports totaled 116.7 million gallons in July, up 26% from June, with Canada and Brazil taking nearly two-thirds of shipments. Year-to-date exports reached 803.4 million gallons, pacing for a record 1.38 billion gallons.
Brazil's new 20% tariff and quota took effect September 1, so its impact is not yet visible.
Strong export pull supports ethanol plant margins and corn demand for ethanol, but Brazil's tariff threatens future volumes to a key buyer. Lower ethanol exports would push more supply back into the domestic market.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.