USDA announced over $9.6 billion in payments to producers under the ARC, PLC and CRP programs, beginning the week of October 3, 2017. About $8 billion covers 2016-crop ARC and PLC payments for barley, corn, sorghum, oats, soybeans, wheat and other crops, and $1.6 billion is CRP for 2017.
Payments are aimed at producers in drought, wildfire and hurricane-hit areas.
The payments add cash to farm incomes for producers facing low prices, which can support near-term feed and grain demand. Since they do not change supply or crop prices directly, the direct price impact is modest.
After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.