
A shortage of DAP fertiliser is hurting sowing prospects for India's rabi crop, with farmers facing tight supply at sowing time. Good monsoon rains and fuller reservoirs have encouraged farmers to plant more area despite high prices.
Tight Indian phosphate supply supports DAP prices and may increase import demand, adding upward pressure on global phosphate costs.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports of tight DAP supply in India at rabi sowing, with strong demand and high prices, plausibly supported DAP prices in the days before the 2024-10-25 move.
Reports of an Indian DAP shortage at rabi sowing time imply urgent import demand from the largest DAP buyer, a plausible driver of the price rise.