
India's 2017 southwest monsoon ended with 841.3 mm of rain, 5% below the long-period average but within the 'normal' band. Rainfall was patchy across states, and the spatial distribution will determine crop outcomes.
The article follows a record 2016-17 harvest of cereals, pulses and oilseeds.
Uneven rainfall across states creates uncertainty for kharif yields and the following rabi season, which can move Indian grain and oilseed prices. The national total alone understates regional stress.
After 31 past neutral weather events, RICE moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.