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StoneX's Josh Linville expects global urea prices to fall another $30-50 per tonne before bottoming, after NOLA barges dropped to about $350/t. Weakness is attributed to the reopening of Hormuz, China's return to urea exports, and the absence of major buyers in the US and Europe.
Nitrogen prices are expected to keep falling near term, lowering costs for feed producers. A rebound is anticipated when fall demand returns and lost Middle East and Chinese output tightens supply later in the year.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.