A CME Group article notes that CBOT soft red winter wheat has been in a long-term bear market since July 2012 and has fallen more than 50%. Prices near $4.30 per bushel remain above 1997-2006 levels, while ending-stocks-to-use ratios are near record highs.
The article argues high inventories explain depressed prices but have little bearing on future price moves.
Near-record wheat inventories keep the market structurally heavy, though the article suggests inventory levels alone are not a reliable signal for further price declines.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.