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A World Grain analysis says Spain, France, Morocco and northwestern Algeria are short of moisture, with forecasts suggesting dryness may persist through autumn. Most other wheat areas, including most of Russia and central and western Ukraine, have favorable establishment.
Futures prices are subdued because few regions have serious adverse weather.
Dry conditions in southwestern Europe and North Africa could cut wheat and barley yields and raise 2018 supply concerns. For now, the limited scope of the problem keeps prices subdued.
world-grain.comDrew LernerNov 23, 2017Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 224 past neutral weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
