
Class III milk futures rallied to about $24.00 this summer and again in October, supported by the government cheese buying program. With that program ending, front-month Class III futures slipped back to the mid-$15 range.
Deferred 2021 contracts posted bullish daily reversals on December 3.
Government cheese purchases had propped up Class III prices, so their end removes a demand support for near-term milk prices. Deferred contracts holding firm suggests the market is still pricing uncertainty about whether the Farm to Family program continues into 2021.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The end of the government cheese buying program removed demand support, so front-month Class III slipped from the $24 peaks to the mid-$15 range.