
Urea prices in North America have risen since late March as spring planting began, with the New Orleans barge price above $500/ton from under $400 at end-March. Indian urea demand reached 38.8 million tonnes in 2024-25 while Indian stocks are about 3.6 million tonnes below last year, and Brazil's first-quarter urea imports were the lowest since 2016.
Tight Indian supply and firm US prices support global nitrogen costs, while soft Brazilian demand limits upside, which affects the cost of corn production inputs and feed grain margins.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.