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March corn futures closed down 5.25 cents in the week to $3.47.5 per bushel. The author notes the USDA's December ethanol demand increase is consistent with EIA weekly ethanol production data, and questions how much bad news is already priced in.
Weak fundamentals and ample supplies keep corn futures under pressure, though the ethanol demand estimate supports the tighter corn stocks figure. Price direction depends on whether the downside has already been priced in.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.