
Christmas-weekend rains verified across central Argentina and southern and south-central Brazil, easing moisture stress on developing corn and soybeans. Forecasters said the southwest Argentine grain belt remains dry, and La Nina could still bring drier conditions in January.
The Southern Oscillation Index has reversed from La Nina values.
Adequate rainfall reduces the risk of South American crop losses, which weighs on corn and soybean prices, although the January outlook keeps some risk premium.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.