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USDA estimated the January 1 US feeder cattle supply outside feedlots at about 200,000 head below a year earlier. Feeder futures have fallen sharply and trade at a discount to the USDA forecast.
A tighter feeder supply and futures trading below USDA-implied prices point to a likely spring feeder cattle price rally.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.