USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service expects Australia's 2017-18 wheat production to reach the official 21.5 million tonne forecast despite some unfavorable weather. Late-season rain and milder temperatures lifted yields in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia above expectations.
Barley output is seen at 8.5 million tonnes, above the official forecast, with exports estimated at 6 million tonnes.
Higher-than-expected Australian wheat and barley yields add to exportable supply, increasing competition with Black Sea feed wheat and modestly pressuring feed grain prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.