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Butter, SMP and cheese futures surged in early February 2026 despite rising milk output of roughly 5% in the EU, 4% in the US and 2.5% in New Zealand. The rally was driven by a short squeeze after traders had positioned heavily short.
Short-covering-driven gains in dairy futures lift milk and dairy protein prices, though the rally may be fragile given the supply backdrop.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.