An opinion piece cites a University of Wisconsin-Madison study that modeled a failure of the Saverton, Missouri lock. It estimates that a nine-month closure would stall 12 million tons of grain and require about 300,000 truckloads.
A lock failure would raise freight costs, widen farm-gate basis, and could shift export competitiveness toward Brazil. The article is a call for policy action rather than a new market event.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,054 past logistics events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.0% over 20.
After 837 past logistics events, SOY moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.