The USDA Grain Transportation Report for February 1, 2018 finds US grain stocks on December 1 at a record 18 billion bushels. Rail carloads and New Orleans barge unloads fell in late 2017, while grain disappearance held pace, suggesting more truck movement.
Third and fourth quarter 2017 grain inspections were down about 21 and 22 percent year on year.
Record stocks and weaker export inspections point to ample supply and soft grain prices. Shifts from barge and rail to trucking can affect regional basis and freight costs.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.