The EPA finalized 2018 Renewable Fuel Standard volumes at current levels, including a 15-billion-gallon conventional biofuel level, and set 2019 biomass-based diesel volumes. The final rule was only slightly changed from the proposal issued in 2017.
Holding the conventional volume at 15 billion gallons supports corn-based ethanol demand and soybean oil demand for biodiesel. Certainty removes a major policy risk that could have cut feedstock demand.
After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.