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Genesus Genetics says the lean hog index fell $14.00 during March and April futures dropped about $15.00. It argues that China's 25% tariff hits pork offal and bellies, which are a growing share of carcass value, and that Hong Kong may become a route for U.S. pork to reach China.
Losing China as a buyer for offal and bellies reduces the value of the carcass and pressures hog prices, especially with record hog supplies.
thepigsite.comGlobal Ag MediaApr 15, 2018After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Futures had fallen about $15 on China's pork tariff fears, so the oversold market was set up for a sharp rebound as tariff panic eased and seasonal demand firmed.
Describes the steep March/April futures decline tied to China's pork tariff, which left prices oversold and set up a snapback, though it does not explain the day's upward move directly.
