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Nomura analysts said the negative correlation between the US-Japan interest rate spread and USD/JPY began to break down in April. They listed factors behind the anomaly, including US fiscal and trade policy and expectations for early BOJ normalization.
They also flagged risks that could end the anomaly, such as slowing global growth and rising US rates.
A breakdown in the rate-differential relationship changes how USD/JPY responds to US yields, which matters for currency hedging by importers. Direct commodity price effects are limited.
octaafrica.netMay 22, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
