Industry speakers at the Flame conference warned of a possible gas supply crunch by the early 2020s. They cited surging Chinese demand and a lack of new LNG project investment decisions over the past two years, with Asia-Pacific LNG prices possibly exceeding $10/MMBtu.
A future supply shortfall could push gas and LNG prices sharply higher, raising fertilizer and energy costs and prompting fuel switching in Asia. The impact on feed markets would be indirect and mostly longer-term.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.