
USDA's annual Milk Production, Disposition and Income report shows U.S. dairy cow numbers averaged 9.392 million head in 2017, up about 67,000 from 2016, with milk per cow up 163 pounds. Total milk production rose 1.4% to 215.5 billion pounds, and producer returns averaged $17.69 per hundredweight, 8.3% above 2016.
Higher cow numbers and output add to milk supply, which weighs on dairy prices, even as 2017 producer returns improved on 2016. The report is backward-looking and shows no new price shock.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.