
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the front-runner in Mexico's July 1 presidential election, has pledged to roll back all agricultural provisions of NAFTA. He says U.S. agribusiness has dumped staples such as corn, pork, wheat and rice on Mexican markets.
His aim is to revitalize domestic agriculture and reduce reliance on American farm products.
If the campaign pledge is carried out, Mexico would buy less U.S. corn and other farm goods, which is bearish for U.S. feed grain demand and prices.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.