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A Plains and Midwest heat wave over Memorial Day weekend set dozens of daily record highs and record May heat in several cities. Minneapolis/St. Paul hit 100 degrees, the earliest in the year on record for the Twin Cities.
Early-season heat and dryness raise concern about crop stress in the US corn belt, which can add a weather premium to corn and soybean futures if it persists into June.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.