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Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin argues that every Fed tightening cycle has produced a financial crisis somewhere, often outside the U.S. He cites historical episodes including the 1994 Mexican crisis and the 2004-6 housing collapse.
Historically, Fed tightening has triggered emerging-market stress and dollar strength, which can cut import demand for feed and pressure commodity prices.
After 4,478 past macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.