
Malaysia is set to replace Indonesia as India's top palm oil supplier in 2019 because of a lower import duty on refined palm oil under a trade agreement. Malaysia's share of India's imports rose to 52% in the first half of 2019, up from 30% in 2018.
India cut its duty on refined palm oil from other origins to 50%, while Malaysian shipments pay 45%.
The shift in origin favors Malaysian refiners and shifts trade flows, but overall palm oil supply and price effects are limited.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.