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An article by Naomi Blohm explains that wide 2018-19 corn price forecasts, ranging from $4 to $8 a bushel, stem from differing views on ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratios. Global corn demand has grown after several years of low prices, and global stockpiles are being drawn down.
Tight stocks-to-use levels would support corn prices if the drawdown continues, while ample supplies would push prices lower, so the metric frames the price outlook for feed buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.