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China and India are accelerating long-term potash contract talks, with producers targeting about $300/tonne CFR for both. Belarus Potash offered $292 to China while buyers countered at $242, and India may have less than two and a half months of supply left.
Settlement near $300 CFR would raise potash costs by $60-70/tonne over last year's contracts, a bullish signal for fertilizer prices as tight supply meets low inventories.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.