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The European Commission will decide by 16 August 2018 whether to abolish anti-dumping duties of €23.88 to €47.07 per tonne on Russian ammonium nitrate. The review was requested by Acron and by eight EU farmers' associations.
Removing the duties would let cheaper Russian nitrate into the EU, lowering European nitrogen prices and farm input costs, though the decision is still pending.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.