
Indonesia bought 1.14 million tonnes of Russian wheat from July 2017 to the end of March 2018, a threefold year-on-year increase. Australian producers are concerned that their largest wheat market is shifting toward Black Sea supply.
Russian wheat is priced attractively and is being blended into flour.
Growing Black Sea share of Asian import demand competes with Australian and other origins and can cap wheat export prices. The effect on feed grain prices is modest.
After 206 past neutral trade events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.