The United States and Mexico agreed on August 27, 2018 to overhaul NAFTA, leaving Canada under pressure to accept new auto trade and dispute settlement terms. Trump said he could still tariff Canadian cars and expected concessions on Canada's dairy protections.
Negotiators said at least one major issue remained open.
Canada's dairy and auto terms and the risk of tariffs keep trade uncertainty high for North American grain, oilseed and feed flows, and Mexico is a major buyer of US corn. A finished deal would reduce that risk, while a breakdown could hit feed demand and freight.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.