A regional food security bulletin reports Southern Africa's 2018 crop output down 13% from last year after a mid-season dry spell, though still 3% above the five-year average. Large carry-over maize stocks in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe keep regional maize prices 20-33% below the five-year average, but prices are expected to rise from August.
Regional maize supply is cushioned by carry-over stocks, so the impact on global feed grain prices is limited, though tighter Southern African supply may support local maize and feed prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.