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The US dollar index has weakened since mid-August, and the broad trade-weighted dollar has fallen further in September despite rising 10-year Treasury yields near 3.1%. Most G10 currencies gained against the dollar in September, with the yen the exception, while many emerging market currencies have fallen sharply this year.
The author attributes part of the dollar's decline to positioning and improving risk appetite.
A softer dollar tends to support commodity prices and helps emerging-market currencies, which can ease import costs for feed buyers in those markets. Its drivers remain unclear, so the trend may not persist.
econometer.orgSep 26, 2018After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
