
USDA's 2018 trade aid package authorizes up to $12 billion in assistance for farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs. The Market Facilitation Program provides up to $10 billion in direct payments to producers of soybeans, corn, cotton, sorghum, wheat, hogs and dairy.
Direct payments can keep farmers planting and holding production despite weak export prices, cushioning the price impact of lost trade but not restoring export demand.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.