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Kemp's column says Brent futures rose about $14 a barrel since mid-August to near four-year highs, with the six-month spread swinging into steep backwardation. Oman crude traded at a rare premium to Brent, signaling fears of near-term physical shortages.
Backwardation signals tight prompt supply, supporting energy input costs and the cost base for fertilizer and transport used in feed.
reuters.comJohn KempOct 3, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
