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The EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent averaging $81/b in Q4 2018 and $75/b in 2019. It flags significant uncertainty from the reimposition of Iran sanctions and possible OPEC responses.
The forecast of elevated crude prices supports energy costs for feed logistics and biofuel economics, while the sanctions-driven uncertainty leaves the outlook open to sharp moves in either direction.
eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov)Nov 1, 2018After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 116 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.0% to +3.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
