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Reuters' Ocean Shock investigation describes Chinese demand pulling fishing fleets into West Africa to supply fishmeal factories. It notes Peru dominates world fishmeal exports and that El Niño has repeatedly cut its anchovy catch, which lifts prices.
Peru remains the price-setting supplier, so any El Niño-driven anchovy shortfall would push fishmeal prices sharply higher, while African output rising under Chinese demand adds supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.