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An analysis based on October 1 futures and options prices shows a 50 percent probability that November 2018 soybean futures will settle between $8.21 and $8.91 per bushel. Less than a 20 percent chance exists of settling below $8, a sharp shift from spring 2018 when futures reached $10.53.
The option-implied price distribution indicates the market has priced in a substantial decline from spring highs amid trade disruption. Buyers can use these probabilities to gauge forward price risk.
fb.orgJohn Newton, Ph.D.Oct 3, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
