
UK free-range egg producers face severe margin pressure as drought cut wheat volumes and pushed feed prices to a five-year high of £240-270/t. Wheat rose from £143/t at the start of the year to a high of £194/t in August and was still about £176/t in September.
Producers also face a surplus of medium and small eggs from flock expansion.
Drought-driven wheat price strength lifts feed costs for poultry producers, adding to downward pressure on egg margins and possibly on flock size.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.