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The Congressional farm bill remains stalled in House-Senate conference, with the old 2014 law expired and no deal reached before the midterm elections. The Senate bill passed in June and differs from the House version mainly on food stamp work requirements.
Policy uncertainty around commodity programs and crop insurance adds risk premium for US farm planning, but a deal is unlikely to move grain or meal prices directly in the near term.
cnbc.comJeff DanielsOct 31, 2018After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
