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Fitch Ratings expects higher global vegetable oil output to push crude palm oil below USD1,000 a tonne in the second half of 2022, from an average near USD1,500 in the first half. Prices have already fallen over USD300 a tonne since early June after Indonesia cut export levies.
Fitch says a reinstated Indonesian export curb or lower Ukrainian sunflower oil supply are the main upside risks.
Expanding vegetable oil output and Indonesian export incentives point to a sustained supply surplus that weighs on palm prices. Reinstated export curbs would reverse this, which makes policy the key swing factor.
fitchratings.comJun 28, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Fitch's forecast of CPO falling below USD1,000 on higher vegetable oil output reinforced bearish sentiment just before the drop.
