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Citigroup analysts say the spread between US Gulf soybean export prices and Brazilian port prices has narrowed from a 24% discount in mid-October to 17% recently. They read this as market optimism about a possible Trump-Xi trade deal at the G20 meeting.
The 25% Chinese tariff on US soybeans remains in place.
A narrowing US-Brazil basis suggests traders are pricing in possible tariff relief, which could lift US soybean prices if a deal materializes, but the signal is speculative until talks produce results.
cnbc.comPatti DommNov 14, 2018Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
