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Oklahoma State economist Kim Anderson outlines conditions under which June 2019 Oklahoma and Texas wheat could reach $5.50 to $6.00. He cites record world wheat ending stocks of 10.3 billion bushels and a 2018 harvest with high protein and test weight.
Large carry-in stocks cap upside, but a shortage of milling-quality wheat could lift HRW prices if USDA balance sheets tighten.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.