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Analyst Matt Gould said 2018 is the fourth straight year of poor farm milk prices, but domestic cheese and butter demand is strong and global dairy demand is robust. He said the main obstacles are trade disputes with China and Mexico, and that a Mexico tariff repeal would help.
Market access rather than demand is the constraint, so resolving trade disputes could lift milk prices and dairy feed demand.
After 18 past neutral trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -2.9% to +1.1%), and -3.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.